Monday, September 15, 2008

Ike a Bad Memory

For many Ike will be a very bad memory. Ike in the Gulf was not a good Candidate for Seeding. The consistent big wind field and very big eye that had been sheared off at mid levels by Cuba probably yielded a system that would not have been treated. It was not close to modification by the original Stormfury Hypothesis at the time it was in the Gulf.


The next storms up for the 2008 season probably have at least 10 days [September 25th or so] for a chance at development because of the upper level shear over the tropical waters. We also had a rule in the 53rd that once a front cleared the Gulf of Mexico chances of a good Hurricane landfall at Keesler were slim to nil.

That can always change with the very warm water and PERSISTENT rapid intensification area we have experienced the last few years—-The area just South of Cuba. Rita, Wilma and Katrina have permanently rewritten the record book.

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